A new long term forecast by Standard Charted Plc. shows that India will be the second largest economy on the terms of GDP adjusted to Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) surpassing the United States by 2030. It also opined that the five countries in the Top 10 economies would be from the contemporary emerging nations. It also has predicted that by the end of 2020, China will be the largest economy in the world.
It should be noted here that the predictions are based on purchasing power parity, exchange rates, and nominal GDP.
As per the prediction, within the time that India would take to reach the second spot, Indonesia would guarantee a place for itself in the top 5 spots.
Standard Charted economists led by David Mann said their long term forecasts are based on only one principle that every country’s GDP should be at par with its population. If that convergence happens, there will be absolute or minimum inequality. So, we have to wait for some more decades to see a convergence between the developed worlds and developing worlds.
As per the prediction report, China will be of 64.2 trillion dollars in PPP terms whereas India will be of 46.3 trillion dollars, surpassing the United States by a 15 trillion dollar. Indonesia will be at the 4th spot by 2030 having the economy of 10.1 trillion dollars, and it will be just above Turkey which will be of 9.1 trillion dollars by 2030. The other economies in the top 10 will be Brazil, Egypt, Russia, Japan, and Germany.
The group has projected a growth rate of more than 7.7 percent for India by 2020 and China is predicted to have a growth year-on-year of 5 percent by 2030. The low growth of the Chinese economy will be normal owing to the anticipated hugeness of the economy.
Asia’s share in total global GDP rose to 28 percent in 2018 from 20 percent in 2010. And as per the prediction by the Standard Charted group, it may touch a whopping 35 percent by 2030 equalling the GDP of the whole of Europe and the United States combined.
There are other findings as well by the group; they are as follows,
- Decreasing reforms will affect the productivity of the economies of the emerging countries.
- This may be the end of quantitative easing in business development; it implies there have to be more reforms by the Governments.
- The most important middle class will grow by 2020, and the majority of the world population will be entering into it.
- Middle-class population growth will have adverse effects on the economy, but the all-round development can mitigate it by providing education, urbanization and health care facilities.
It is often said that the past century belonged to the West and the present century belongs to the East. Looking at the predictions, one cannot agree more. Growth and development in numbers should not be the priority for any country, but human development should be given due place in order to achieve greater heights in human civilization.
Harvey is the FinanceWhile’s passionate news writer. Before joining our team, he was a freelance writer and had written a number of articles related to finance and economics for foremost publications and news sites. He is an avid traveler. In leisure, he loves to travel and explore new places.